Forecast Reliability
92.4%
Δ vs plan: +3.1% • CI 90–94%
Pipeline Truthfulness
0.88
Weighted by activity freshness & evidence density
Commit vs Actual
$12.3M → $11.5M
Variance −$0.8M (−6.5%)
Stage Aging p95
12.6d
Slipped deals: 14 • Ghosted: 9
Commit vs Actuals with Upside
Shaded area = truthfulness gap; dotted = upside.
Stage Aging & Activity Gaps
Bars = median days-in-stage; markers = % deals inactive > 7d.
Late-Stage Risk Flags (Commit & Procure)
| Deal | Stage | Owner | Flag | Detected | Action |
|---|
Touch Cadence
86%
Deals touched ≤ 7d
No Next Step
11%
Deals missing next step
Stale Quotes
9%
Valid > 30d
Owner Load
7.4
Avg open commits per AE
Coverage
3.2×
Pipeline / quota
Truthfulness Threshold Simulation
Truthfulness
0.88
Δ Forecast Reliability
+0.8%
Deals impacted
18
CI (80%)
±0.5%
Demo model only; production uses explainable grouped attributions with audit trails.