Executive Summary
Headline: Forecast reliability at 92.4% (+3.1% vs plan) and NRR at 108% with churn stabilized at 4.8%. Expansion yield delivered $1.8M against a $3.2M addressable base; cycle-to-close improved to 41 days (−3d).
What drove outcomes: Adoption ladders (≥3) and sponsor engagement were the strongest positive contributors, while AR>60d pockets and isolated SLA breaches explain most of the variance drag. Confidence remains high: coverage 98%, overrides 2.1% (Trust Index 0.86).
Priorities: 1) Close AR>60d on 14 flagged accounts; 2) Push ladder-3 activations in MM; 3) Executive sponsor touches for top-12 ENT renewals within 30 days.
Forecast Reliability
92.4%
Δ vs plan: +3.1% • CI 90–94%
NRR
108%
+2.6% vs baseline
GRR
94%
Churn 6% (logo)
Expansion Yield
$1.8M
of $3.2M addressable
Variance Narrative (Explainable)
- Adoption contributed +36% of positive variance—feature ladder ≥3 up 8pts; MM cohort strongest.
- Relationship contributed +24%—exec sponsor touches up 22%; ENT renewals show highest lift.
- SLA contributed −22% in drag—two MTTR clusters; mitigation in progress.
- Billing contributed −18% in drag—AR>60d pockets in SMB; dunning and credits in motion.
Actions in Flight
Playbooks
126
Accept 62% • Modify 23% • Escalate 15%
Risks triaged
84
Median lead time 3.2d
Expansions pursued
57
$1.1M pipeline impact
Top Risks (T-90 Renewals)
Top Expansion Opportunities
Appendix — Evidence Index
- Invoice
INV-23144— AR 73 days — Billing system - SLA
ENTERPRISE-01— 2 breaches — Support system - Usage ladder cohort — MM — Telemetry warehouse snapshot
2025-09-28 - Exec sponsor log — ENT — 22% increase — Calendar/Notes metadata
Snapshot Integrity
Snapshot time:
Data coverage: 98% • Overrides: 2.1% • Trust Index: 0.86
Fingerprint (SHA‑256):
—Hash is computed from the KPI strip, variance narrative, and the Top Risk/Expansion lists.